Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food prices: Evidence from storable and perishable commodities in India.

The supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 outbreak have led to changes in food prices globally. The impact of COVID-19 on the price of essential and perishable food items in developing and emerging economies has been lacking. Using a recent phone survey by the World Bank, this study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the prices of the three essential food items in India. The results indicate that price of basic food items such as atta (wheat flour) and rice increased significantly during the pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic period. In contrast, during the same period, the price of onions declined significantly. The findings may suggest panic-buying, hoarding, and storability of food items. The results further reveal that remittance income and cash transfers from the government negatively affected commodity prices. Thus, this study's findings suggest that families may have shifted the demand away from essential foods during the pandemic.

Role of Government Financial Support and Vulnerability Characteristics Associated with Food Insecurity during the COVID-19 Pandemic among Young Peruvians.

Peruvian households have experienced one of the most prevalent economic shocks due to COVID-19, significantly increasing their vulnerability to food insecurity (FI). To understand the vulnerability characteristics of these households among the Peruvian young population, including the role of the government's response through emergency cash transfer, we analysed longitudinal data from the Young Lives study (n = 2026), a study that follows the livelihoods of two birth cohorts currently aged 18 to 27 years old. FI was assessed using the Food Insecurity Experience Scale. Household characteristics were collected before and during the COVID-19 outbreak in Peru to characterise participants' vulnerability to FI. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between government support and participants' vulnerability characteristics to FI. During the period under study (March to December 2020), 24% (95% CI: 22.1-25.9%) of the participants experienced FI. Families in the top wealth tercile were 49% less likely to experience FI. Larger families (>5 members) and those with increased household expenses and decreased income due to COVID-19 were more likely to experience FI (by 35%, 39% and 42%, respectively). There was no significant association between government support and FI (p = 0.768). We conclude that pre-pandemic socioeconomic status, family size, and the economic disruption during COVID-19 contribute to the risk of FI among the Peruvian young population, while government support insufficiently curtailed the risk to these households.

Food Insecurity Pre- and Post the COVID-19 Pandemic and Economic Crisis in Lebanon: Prevalence and Projections.

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has had serious repercussions on the global economy, work force, and food systems. In Lebanon, the pandemic overlapped with an economic crisis, which threatened to exacerbate food insecurity (FI). The present study aims to evaluate the trends and projections of FI in Lebanon due to overlapping health and economic crises. Data from Gallup World Poll (GWP) 2015-2017 surveys conducted in Lebanon on nationally representative adults (n = 3000) were used to assess FI trends and explore its sociodemographic correlates. Predictive models were performed to forecast trends in FI (2018-2022), using GWP data along with income reduction scenarios to estimate the impact of the pandemic and economic crises. Pre crises, trend analyses showed that FI could reach 27% considering wave year and income. Post crises, FI was estimated to reach on average 36% to 39%, considering 50-70% income reduction scenarios among Lebanese population. FI projections are expected to be higher among females compared to males and among older adults compared to younger ones (p < 0.05). These alarming findings call for emergency food security policies and evidence-based programs to mitigate the burden of multiple crises on the FI of Lebanese households and promote resilience for future shocks.

Mathematical model of the feedback between global supply chain disruption and COVID-19 dynamics.

The pandemic of COVID-19 has become one of the greatest threats to human health, causing severe disruptions in the global supply chain, and compromising health care delivery worldwide. Although government authorities sought to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2, by restricting travel and in-person activities, failure to deploy time-sensitive strategies in ramping-up of critical resource production exacerbated the outbreak. Here, we developed a mathematical model to analyze the effects of the interaction between supply chain disruption and infectious disease dynamics using coupled production and disease networks built on global data. Analysis of the supply chain model suggests that time-sensitive containment strategies could be created to balance objectives in pandemic control and economic losses, leading to a spatiotemporal separation of infection peaks that alleviates the societal impact of the disease. A lean resource allocation strategy can reduce the impact of supply chain shortages from 11.91 to 1.11% in North America. Our model highlights the importance of cross-sectoral coordination and region-wise collaboration to optimally contain a pandemic and provides a framework that could advance the containment and model-based decision making for future pandemics.

Impact of COVID-19 on Nutrition, Food Security, and Dietary Diversity and Quality in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia and Nigeria.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can have far-reaching consequences for developing countries through the combined effects of infection and mortality, and the mitigation measures that can impact food systems and diets. Using a mobile platform, this cross-sectional study evaluated the effect of COVID-19 on food prices and dietary quality for 1797 households in Nouna and Ouagadougou in Burkina Faso, Addis Ababa and Kersa in Ethiopia, and Lagos and Ibadan in Nigeria. We assessed the consumption of 20 food groups during the previous 7 days. The dietary diversity scores (DDS) and Prime Diet Quality Scores (PDQS) were used to assess dietary diversity and quality. We used generalized estimating equation (GEE) linear models to evaluate associations between price changes for staples, pulses, vegetables, fruits, and animal source foods (ASFs) with the DDS and PDQS PDQS. Most participants reported increasing prices of staples, pulses, fruits, vegetables and ASF, and ≥ 40% reported the decreased consumption of staples, legumes, and other vegetables and fruits. The DDS (except in Kersa and Ouagadougou) and PDQS were lower during the COVID-19 pandemic. Higher pulse prices were associated with lower DDS (estimate, -0.35; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.74 to 0.03; P = 0.07) in the combined analysis and in Burkina Faso (estimate, -0.47; 95% CI, -0.82 to -0.11). Higher vegetable prices were positively associated with the DDS (estimate, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.08 to 0.37). Lower crop production (estimate, -0.54; 95% CI, -0.80 to -0.27) was associated with lower DDS. The price increases and worsening dietary diversity and quality call for social protection and other strategies to increase the availability and affordability of nutrient-rich foods during the COVID-19 pandemic and public health emergencies.

The American Rescue Plan Act Is a Great Start but More Increases in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) Benefits Are Likely Needed Due to Implicit Hidden Reductions.

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is intended to help low-income individuals reach the cost of a nutritious diet. In response to the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, SNAP benefits have been increased by 20.3% since October 2020. Given the intended goal of the program, is the 20.3% increase enough? Even prior to COVID-19, the literature had identified 3 separate shortcomings in the current formula that had not been addressed. Here, these shortcomings are integrated into a unifying framework that allows for a comparison between an adjusted formula, that accounts for all these shortcomings, and the current unadjusted formula, that does not account for these shortcomings. Using some average data from the literature, the current unadjusted formula gives the misleading impression that the government will provide 71% of the cost of a nutritious diet with households responsible for 29%. However, working with the adjusted formula, that takes into account the shortcomings, reveals the government actually only provides 41% of the adjusted cost of a nutritious diet and households are responsible for 59%. Some actual and recommended adjustments are shown to fall far short of the full adjustment required to reach a nutritious diet, on average. In particular, the 20.3% increase is less than half of the amount needed to fully correct for these omissions.

Farmer and farm worker illnesses and deaths from COVID-19 and impacts on agricultural output.

Farmers and farm workers are critical to the secure supply of food, yet this population is potentially at high risk to acquire COVID-19. This study estimates the prevalence of COVID-19 among farmers and farmworkers in the United States by coupling county-level data on the number of farm workers relative to the general population with data on confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths. In the 13 month period since the start of the pandemic (from March 1, 2020 to March 31, 2021), the estimated cumulative number of COVID-19 cases (deaths) was 329,031 (6,166) among agricultural producers, 170,137 (2,969) among hired agricultural workers, 202,902 (3,812) among unpaid agricultural workers, and 27,223 (459) among migrant agricultural workers. The cases amount to 9.55%, 9.31%, 9.39%, and 9.01% of all U.S. agricultural producers, hired workers, unpaid workers, and migrant workers, respectively. The COVID-19 incidence rate is significantly higher in counties with more agricultural workers; a 1% increase in the number of hired agricultural workers in a county is associated with a 0.04% increase in the number of COVID-19 cases per person and 0.07% increase in deaths per person. Although estimated new cases among farm workers exhibit similar trends to that of the general population, the correlation between the two is sometimes negative, highlighting the need to monitor this particular population that tends to live in more rural areas. Reduction in labor availability from COVID-19 is estimated to reduce U.S. agricultural output by about $309 million.

Lean on Your Land Grant: One University's Approach to Address the Food Supply Chain Workforce during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

During the spring 2020 COVID-19 outbreak, faculty and staff within Ohio State University's College of Food, Agricultural and Environmental Sciences came together from multiple disciplines to support essential agricultural workers. Concerted leadership from administration provided a framework for this interaction to occur while faculty worked off-campus to address the many issues identified by the agricultural community, the industry sector, and other state agencies. During the onset period, much of our work was reactive; our efforts to address worker safety and health involved three primary areas within: 1) production agricultural workers, 2) produce growers and direct marketing enterprises, and 3) meat supply chain workers. Communication to target audiences relied upon our ability to convert face-to-face programming into virtual webinars, social media, and digital publications. A Food System Task Force mobilized specialists to address emerging issues, with one specific topic related to Personal Protective Equipment (PPE). As we continue to face new seasons in agriculture production, and pockets of COVID-19 outbreaks within our state, we will continue to address the dynamic needs of our food supply systems. There are implications for how we will teach the agricultural workforce within a virtual platform, including the evaluation of the effectiveness of those training programs. There are renewed opportunities to integrate health and safety content into other Extension teams who conventionally focused on production practices and farm management topics. Several research themes emerged during subgroup dialog to pursue new knowledge in workers' cultural attitude and barriers, PPE design, PPE access, and overall attitude toward COVID-19 health practices.

Syndemics at play: chronic kidney disease, diabetes and COVID-19 in Pakistan.

Although coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a pandemic, it has several specificities influencing its outcomes due to the entwinement of several factors, which anthropologists have called "syndemics". Drawing upon Singer and Clair's syndemics model, I focus on synergistic interaction among chronic kidney disease (CKD), diabetes, and COVID-19 in Pakistan. I argue that over 36 million people in Pakistan are standing at a higher risk of contracting COVID-19, developing severe complications, and losing their lives. These two diseases, but several other socio-cultural, economic, and political factors contributing to structured vulnerabilities, would function as confounders. To deal with the critical effects of these syndemics the government needs appropriate policies and their implementation during the pandemic and post-pandemic. To eliminate or at least minimize various vulnerabilities, Pakistan needs drastic changes, especially to overcome (formal) illiteracy, unemployment, poverty, gender difference, and rural and urban difference.

Impact of COVID-19 on vegetable supply chain and food security: Empirical evidence from Bangladesh.

In Bangladesh, the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have substantial effects on the livelihood of people, but smallholder vegetables growers will be even more affected because of the perishability nature of the product. The first case of COVID-19 was confirmed in Bangladesh on 8th March, 2020 and consequently the country went into lockdown on 26 March, 2020. This study has made a survey of vegetables farmers through a mobile phone to understand the impact of COVID-19 on vegetables supply chain, gross margin and the future production plan of the growers. In Bangladesh, the lockdown has disrupted the food supply chain and increases the likelihood of food insecurity. Lockdown has impeded vegetable farmers' access to markets, thus limiting their productive and sales capacities. The price of yield has dropped by more than half resulting in huge loss for vegetable growers. The loss incurred by the farmers for producing Brinjal, Cucumber, Pointed gourd, Yardlong beans and Bottle gourd are BDT 4900, BDT 10900, BDT 57400, BDT 52500 and BDT 18500 per acre respectively as a result of COVID-19. The decreased income increases farmers' likelihood of vulnerability and food insecurity and poses a challenge to continued produce. 'Cash support' is more important than 'food support' in order to keep vegetable farmers in farming, to ensure a ready supply of necessary low-cost resources, and to help fight against the upcoming food shortage.

A randomised experiment of health, cost and social norm message frames to encourage acceptance of swaps in a simulation online supermarket.

Offering lower-energy food swaps to customers of online supermarkets could help to decrease energy (kcal) purchased and consumed. However, acceptance rates of such food swaps tend to be low. This study aimed to see whether framing lower-energy food swaps in terms of cost savings or social norms could improve likelihood of acceptance relative to framing swaps in terms of health benefits. Participants (n = 900) were asked to shop from a 12-item shopping list in a simulation online supermarket. When a target high-energy food was identified in the shopping basket at check-out, one or two lower-energy foods would be suggested as an alternative (a "swap"). Participants were randomised to only see messages emphasising health benefits (fewer calories), cost benefits (lower price) or social norms (others preferred this product). Data were analysed for 713 participants after exclusions. Participants were offered a mean of 3.17 swaps (SD = 1.50), and 12.91% of swaps were accepted (health = 14.31%, cost = 11.49%, social norms = 13.18%). Swap acceptance was not influenced by the specific swap frame used (all p > .170). Age was significantly and positively associated with swap acceptance (b = 0.02, SE = 0.00, p < .001), but was also associated with smaller decreases in energy change (b = 0.46, SE = .19, p = .014). Overall, offering swaps reduced both energy (kcal) per product (b = -9.69, SE = 4.07, p = .017) and energy (kcal) per shopping basket (t712 = 11.09, p < .001) from pre- to post-intervention. Offering lower-energy food swaps could be a successful strategy for reducing energy purchased by customers of online supermarkets. Future research should explore alternative solutions for increasing acceptance rates of such swaps.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Rural Food Supply and Demand in Australia: Utilising Group Model Building to Identify Retailer and Customer Perspectives.

Prior to the 2020 outbreak of COVID-19, 70% of Australians' food purchases were from supermarkets. Rural communities experience challenges accessing healthy food, which drives health inequalities. This study explores the impact of COVID-19 on food supply and purchasing behaviour in a rural supermarket. Group model building workshops explored food supply experiences during COVID-19 in a rural Australian community with one supermarket. We asked three supermarket retailers "What are the current drivers of food supply into this supermarket environment?" and, separately, 33 customers: "What are the current drivers of purchases in this supermarket environment?" Causal loop diagrams were co-created with participants in real time with themes drawn afterwards from coded transcripts. Retailers' experience of COVID-19 included 'empty shelves' attributed to media and government messaging, product unavailability, and community fear. Customers reported fear of contracting COVID-19, unavailability of food, and government restrictions resulting in cooking more meals at home, as influences on purchasing behaviour. Supermarket management and customers demonstrated adaptability and resilience to normalise demand and combat reduced supply.

Food Insufficiency and Mental Health in the U.S. During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

INTRODUCTION: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the rates of food insecurity and mental illness have been projected to increase in the U.S. owing to significant social and economic disruption. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of food insufficiency (often the most extreme form of food insecurity), the correlates of food insufficiency, and the associations between food insufficiency and symptoms of poor mental health in the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Cross-sectional data from 63,674 participants of the U.S. Census Household Pulse Survey were collected and analyzed in 2020. Multiple Poisson regression models were used to estimate associations with food insufficiency. RESULTS: Food insufficiency rose from 8.1% to 10.0% from March to June 2020. Factors associated with food insufficiency included lower age, Black/African American or Latinx race/ethnicity, being unmarried, larger household size, recent employment loss, income below the federal poverty line, and lower education (all p<0.001). Food insufficiency was independently associated with all symptoms of poor mental health, adjusting for socioeconomic and demographic factors (adjusted RRs ranged from 1.16 to 1.42, all p<0.001). The association between food insufficiency and poor mental health was attenuated among people who received free groceries or meals. CONCLUSIONS: Food insufficiency has increased during the COVID-19 pandemic and affects vulnerable populations, placing individuals at higher risk for symptoms of poor mental health. Particularly in the current crisis, clinicians should regularly screen patients for food insufficiency and mental health outcomes as well as provide support in accessing appropriate resources.

High prevalence of food insecurity, the adverse impact of COVID-19 in Brazilian favela.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate food insecurity (FI) prevalence in two favelas in Brazil in the early weeks of the social distancing policy, from 27 March 2020 to 1 June 2020. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study using an online questionnaire to elicit information on socio-economic and demographic characteristics, the types of stores visited to buy food, and FI screening. The FI experience was evaluated according to the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale. Factors associated with moderate or severe FI were investigated using the logistic regression model. SETTING: São Paulo city, Brazil. PARTICIPANTS: Totally, 909 householders. RESULTS: Eighty-eight per cent of the households included young women working as cleaners or kitchen assistants and in sales services. One-fifth of the participants were involved in the federal cash transfer programme, called Bolsa Família. There were 92 % households with children. The most frequent experience reported was uncertainty about food acquisition or receiving more (89 %), eating less than one should (64 %), not being able to eat healthy and nutritious food (46 %), and skipping a meal (39 %). Forty-seven per cent of the participants experienced moderate or severe FI. Factors associated with moderate and severe FI were low income, being a Bolsa Família recipient, having a low level of education and living in a household without children. CONCLUSIONS: Half of the participants experienced moderate or severe FI, and almost 10 % experienced hunger. Our data suggest that families with children were at a lower risk of moderate to severe FI. It is possible that nationally established social programmes such as Bolsa Família were protecting those families.

School Closures During COVID-19: Opportunities for Innovation in Meal Service.

In 2019, the National School Lunch Program and School Breakfast Program served approximately 15 million breakfasts and 30 million lunches daily at low or no cost to students.Access to these meals has been disrupted as a result of long-term school closures related to the COVID-19 pandemic, potentially decreasing both student nutrient intake and household food security. By the week of March 23, 2020, all states had mandated statewide school closures as a result of the pandemic, and the number of weekly missed breakfasts and lunches served at school reached a peak of approximately 169.6 million; this weekly estimate remained steady through the final week of April.We highlight strategies that states and school districts are using to replace these missed meals, including a case study from Maryland and the US Department of Agriculture waivers that, in many cases, have introduced flexibility to allow for innovation. Also, we explore lessons learned from the pandemic with the goal of informing and strengthening future school nutrition policies for out-of-school time, such as over the summer.

Digital food environment during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Brazil: an analysis of food advertising in an online food delivery platform.

Online food delivery (OFD) platforms guarantee access to food during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic when commercial food establishments are closed and access to food retail is controlled. The present study aimed to describe the advertisements published in an OFD platform in Brazilian capitals, during the 13th and 14th weeks of the pandemic. Data collection occurred on 1 d of the week and 1 d of the weekend and during lunch and dinner time. A random sample of 25 % of the advertisements (n 1754) published in this period was classified in accordance with the presence of food groups and to the use of marketing strategies. Sandwiches, ultra-processed beverages, traditional meals or pasta were the most common food groups shown in the advertisements. Free delivery prevailed in advertisements of ice cream, candies or salty packages snacks and pizza (P < 0·01). Combos were more frequently shown in the advertising of natural juices or smoothies, ultra-processed beverages, sandwiches and pizzas (P < 0·01). Messages about healthiness were more seen among natural juices or smoothies, vegetables and traditional meals and pasta advertisements (P < 0·01) and less seen in sandwiches (P = 0·02) and pizza advertisements (P < 0·01). Economy messages were rare in advertisements of traditional meals or pasta (P < 0·01) and more common in ultra-processed beverages (P = 0·03) and ice cream, candies or salty packages snacks (P < 0·01) advertisements. The OFD platform promoted unhealthy eating during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil due to the expressive presence of unhealthy foods advertising.